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„Network theory may explain the vulnerability of medieval human settlements to the Black Death pandemic“
by José M. Gómez & Miguel Verdú
Scientific Reports 7, Article number: 43467 (2017), doi:10.1038/srep43467
online unter: nature.com (27.03.2017)
Abstract: „Epidemics can spread across large regions becoming pandemics by flowing along transportation and social networks. Two network attributes, transitivity (when a node is connected to two other nodes that are also directly connected between them) and centrality (the number and intensity of connections with the other nodes in the network), are widely associated with the dynamics of transmission of pathogens. Here we investigate how network centrality and transitivity influence vulnerability to diseases of human populations by examining one of the most devastating pandemic in human history, the fourteenth century plague pandemic called Black Death. We found that, after controlling for the city spatial location and the disease arrival time, cities with higher values of both centrality and transitivity were more severely affected by the plague. A simulation study indicates that this association was due to central cities with high transitivity undergo more exogenous re-infections. Our study provides an easy method to identify hotspots in epidemic networks. Focusing our effort in those vulnerable nodes may save time and resources by improving our ability of controlling deadly epidemics.“ Source
Representation of the network connecting the medieval European and Asian cities through pilgrimage and commercial routes during XIV century.
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Information provided by World Health Organization (WHO):
Article Collection provided by ELSEVIER: World TB Day 2017
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„Nature Did It: Romans, Ecology and the Global History of Infectious Disease“
October 20, 2016
Lecture Series: What’s New in the Fall of the Roman Empire
Kyle Harper, Professor of Classics and Letters, Senior Vice President and Provost, University of Oklahoma
Abstract: Ancient DNA analysis has revealed an involvement of the bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis in several historical pandemics, including the second plague pandemic (Europe, mid-14th century Black Death until the mid-18th century AD). Here we present reconstructed Y. pestis genomes from plague victims of the Black Death and two subsequent historical outbreaks spanning Europe and its vicinity, namely Barcelona, Spain (1300–1420 cal AD), Bolgar City, Russia (1362–1400 AD), and Ellwangen, Germany (1485–1627 cal AD). Our results provide support for (1) a single entry of Y. pestis in Europe during the Black Death, (2) a wave of plague that traveled toward Asia to later become the source population for contemporary worldwide epidemics, and (3) the presence of an historical European plague focus involved in post-Black Death outbreaks that is now likely extinct.
Citation: Maria A. Spyrou, Rezeda I. Tukhbatova, Michal Feldman, Joanna Drath, Sacha Kacki, Julia Beltrán de Heredia, Susanne Arnold, Airat G. Sitdikov, Dominique Castex, Joachim Wahl, Ilgizar R. Gazimzyanov, Danis K. Nurgaliev, Alexander Herbig, Kirsten I. Bos, Johannes Krause, „Historical Y. pestis Genomes Reveal the European Black Death as the Source of Ancient and Modern Plague Pandemics,“ Cell Host and Microbe 19, no. 6 (8 June 2016), 874–881, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chom.2016.05.012.
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